Global oil prices are back above US$100 a barrel, raising fears of higher fuel costs in Kenya when the energy regulator announces its next monthly prices this week.

Where prices are

Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at US$103.41 a barrel on Friday, October 9, according to data platform Databoks. That is up from US$98.26 on October 1. The BBC notes that Brent was around US$73 before the war involving Iran began in February, a conflict that has disrupted oil shipping and driven up energy costs worldwide.

Kenya's current pump prices

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) kept prices unchanged for the cycle running from September 15 to October 14. In Nairobi:

  • Super petrol: KES 214.03 per litre
  • Diesel: KES 217.86 per litre
  • Kerosene: KES 191.38 per litre

Mombasa prices are slightly lower. EPRA's next review is due by October 14.

Why it affects you

Kenya imports all of its refined fuel, so global prices feed straight into local costs. EPRA bases each month's prices on what importers paid for cargoes in the previous weeks, plus taxes, levies and the exchange rate. When crude and refined product prices rise, the government either passes the cost on or uses stabilisation tools to cushion consumers, which costs public money.

Higher fuel prices then spread through the economy:

  • matatu and transport fares go up
  • farmers pay more to move produce, pushing food prices higher
  • manufacturers and businesses face higher costs
  • overall inflation rises, putting pressure on interest rates

What could change the picture

Two developments this weekend could ease the pressure: US President Donald Trump's announced energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and a US deal to release Russian diesel onto world markets. Analysts warn that the diesel volumes are small and that the Middle East conflict remains the main driver of prices.

All eyes are now on EPRA's announcement on October 14.