Kenyans across most of the country should carry umbrellas this weekend as the Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts rain and afternoon thunderstorms over Nairobi, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and parts of the coast. The far north, meanwhile, is expected to stay hot and dry, with strong winds over Marsabit and Turkana.

The outlook comes in the middle of the October-November-December short rains season. The weatherman has already said rainfall will be above average over most of the country this season, partly because of a developing El Nino.

Saturday: showers in the morning, storms in the afternoon

According to the Met forecast for Saturday, 31 October, as reported by K24 Digital, Nairobi will have sunny intervals with morning rain in a few places before light showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Nyandarua are expected to follow a similar pattern, with Nyandarua staying cold at between 10°C and 20°C.

In western Kenya and the Lake Basin, including Kakamega, Kisumu, Siaya and Busia, the day is expected to start sunny before afternoon showers and thunderstorms set in. Nakuru, Narok and Baringo should also see storms in the afternoon after sunny mornings.

On the coast, Mombasa, Kwale and Kilifi are expected to have light morning showers in a few places before clearing to sunny intervals. Tana River, still recovering from floods that displaced hundreds of households this week, could receive between 5mm and 20mm of rain in the morning.

In the east, Kitui is forecast to get steady morning rain followed by afternoon storms, while Machakos and Makueni can expect light morning rain and thunderstorms later in the day. Parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Embu may get light morning rain.

Strong winds and heat in the north

The Met warned of strong south-southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots over parts of Marsabit and Turkana, and residents have been told to expect gusty conditions. Wajir, Mandera and Turkana are expected to be the hottest parts of the country, with highs of about 35°C. Mandera and Turkana are expected to stay sunny all day.

Five-day outlook to Wednesday

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority's five-day outlook for Saturday 31 October to Wednesday 4 November, reported by Kenya Today, says Saturday will be the wettest day of the period. It names Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Siaya, Migori and Nyamira among the counties that could get between 5mm and 20mm of rain in 24 hours.

The outlook says thunderstorms are expected in 19 counties, mainly in the Rift Valley and western Kenya. Bomet, Kisii, Nakuru, Kericho, Kakamega and Migori are expected to have storms on several days.

Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Trans Nzoia and Elgeyo Marakwet are expected to stay dry for all five days. Highland areas such as Nyandarua, Laikipia and Kericho could see night temperatures drop to between 7°C and 11°C. No county is expected to receive heavy rainfall during the period.

  • Motorists have been asked to take extra care on wet roads during afternoon storms.
  • Residents of flood-prone areas are urged to follow the daily 24-hour bulletins and the forecasts issued by county directors of meteorological services.

Photos: K24 Digital; Tuko.co.ke. Thumbnail design: HAMASTA MEDIA.