President William Ruto holds a razor-thin lead over Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in a hypothetical 2027 presidential contest, while Sifuna's Linda Mwananchi has edged ahead of the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) as Kenyans' most preferred party, according to a new opinion poll reported by The Standard.

The survey by Research 8020 Limited, conducted in September 2026 through interviews with 3,760 Kenyans across all 47 counties, puts Ruto at 26 per cent and Sifuna one percentage point behind.

Fragmented opposition field

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is third at 11 per cent, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i at nine per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at seven per cent. Five per cent of respondents were undecided.

The Standard noted that the report also lists 69 per cent under "other candidates", without clearly explaining how that category relates to the named contenders. The poll's margin of error and sampling method were not given in the published summary.

The findings, the paper said, point to a fragmented race in which no single opposition figure commands a clear lead over the others, a picture that mirrors the tug-of-war within the opposition over who should carry its flag against Ruto. Gachagua's DCP and some allies have floated Sifuna as a possible joint candidate, a suggestion that Kalonzo's Wiper camp has publicly rejected.

Linda Mwananchi tops party ranking

On party affiliation, Linda Mwananchi led with 25 per cent, two points ahead of UDA at 23 per cent. Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) followed with nine per cent, while Wiper and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) each scored eight per cent. Sixteen per cent of respondents had not settled on a party.

The result underlines the rapid rise of the Sifuna-associated Linda Mwananchi, whose growth has coincided with deep divisions in ODM over the party's cooperation with President Ruto in the broad-based government. ODM, long the country's biggest opposition party, now trails both Linda Mwananchi and UDA in the survey.

Majority say country headed the wrong way

The poll found that 57 per cent of respondents believe Kenya is headed in the wrong direction, against 23 per cent who said it was on the right track. A further 20 per cent said neither.

The cost of living was the leading concern, cited by 65 per cent of respondents, followed by unemployment at 58 per cent and corruption at 43 per cent. High taxation and insecurity or crime were each mentioned by 31 per cent, while 28 per cent pointed to bad leadership.

How it compares

The Research 8020 numbers differ sharply from other recent surveys, underlining how volatile the pre-election landscape remains. A TIFA poll released in May 2026 had Ruto leading at 24 per cent, followed by Kalonzo at 19 per cent and Matiang'i at 14 per cent, with Sifuna fourth at 10 per cent. A September 2026 Mizani Africa survey placed Ruto far ahead at 38.7 per cent.

Pollsters routinely caution that such surveys capture voter sentiment at the time data is collected and are not predictions of the final result. The General Election is scheduled for August 10, 2027, with campaigns already in full swing as Ruto tours opposition strongholds and opposition leaders hold unity talks.

The poll also comes amid a fierce row over the Elections (Amendment) Bill and the livestreaming of results, which opposition leaders have warned could undermine confidence in next year's vote.

Photos: President William Ruto (PCS/Kenyans.co.ke); Senator Edwin Sifuna (LuffyDe, Wikimedia Commons, CC0)