Ethiopia's Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) says its fighters killed about 500 federal soldiers and allied militiamen and wounded 800 more in a counteroffensive near the historic town of Aksum, the latest sign that the war in the northern region is far from over a month after federal troops took the regional capital, Mekelle.

What the rebels claim

In a statement aired on Monday by Dimtsi Weyane, a television station linked to the group, the TPLF said the fighting took place on Saturday and that two regiment commanders were among the dead. The group also claimed to have captured territory and seized weapons, ammunition, food and medical supplies, and accused federal forces of using artillery and drones against it.

Africanews and TRT World reported that the figures could not be independently verified, and the Ethiopian government has not commented on them. Telephone and internet services in the area were reported to be disrupted, making independent checks harder.

A month of fresh war

Fighting between Addis Ababa and the TPLF has escalated over recent weeks, four years after the Pretoria agreement ended the 2020 to 2022 war that killed hundreds of thousands of people. The TPLF never fully demobilised and kept control of much of Tigray.

In late September the group joined other armed movements in an offensive aimed at toppling the federal government, but it was pushed back by government forces that leaned heavily on drones. In early October federal troops captured several towns including Mekelle, and Addis Ababa set up a six-month interim administration with a promise of elections. TPLF fighters have since pulled back into the hills, from where they launch counterattacks on federal positions.

Analysts have also linked drone strikes on military sites outside Tigray, including an air base at Bishoftu near Addis Ababa, to a rebel coalition that includes the TPLF.

A region on edge

The war is playing out amid wider tension in the Horn of Africa:

  • Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of backing armed groups in the region, a charge Asmara rejects.
  • Sudan accuses Ethiopia of allowing drone attacks on Sudanese territory to be launched from Ethiopian soil and of supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
  • Reports from inside Tigray suggest a growing number of residents are turning against the TPLF, blaming it for dragging the region back into conflict.

Why it matters to Kenya

Ethiopia is Kenya's northern neighbour and a key partner on trade, the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor and regional security, including in Somalia. Renewed war risks fresh displacement and further strain on a region already dealing with conflict in Sudan and South Sudan. Nairobi hosted the November 2022 talks between military commanders that put the Pretoria deal into practice, and diplomats will be watching whether anything of that framework can still be saved.

Photos: AP via Africanews (TPLF fighter near Hawzen, 2021); AMISOM Public Information via Wikimedia Commons (CC0). Thumbnail design: HAMASTA MEDIA.