​It has been a whirlwind 48 hours for Kenyan motorists. Just a day after the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced the steepest price hike in the country’s history, President William Ruto’s administration has made a dramatic U-turn, slashing Value Added Tax (VAT) to prevent a total economic shock.

​The 24-Hour Reversal

​On April 14, EPRA sent shockwaves through the country by pushing Super Petrol and Diesel well past the KSh 200 mark. However, following immediate public outcry and a presidential directive, the National Treasury slashed VAT on petroleum products from 13% to 8%.

​Why the Initial Surge?

​The initial hike—which saw Diesel jump by over KSh 40—was driven by a global supply crisis. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February disrupted 20% of global oil shipments, causing the landed cost of Diesel to surge by 68% in a single month.

​While the government has used billions from the Petroleum Development Levy to "cushion" the blow, the underlying cost of fuel remains at a historic high.

​The Economic Impact

​Despite the slight reduction from the VAT cut, the damage to the cost of living is already unfolding:

​Transport Fares: The Matatu Owners Association and Kenya Transporters Association (KTA) had already signaled a 25% increase in fares and freight charges. It remains to be seen if the Sh9–Sh10 reduction today will be enough to convince them to scale back those hikes.

​Commodity Prices: With Diesel being the engine of the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, experts warn that the price of maize flour and other essentials will likely follow the upward trend.

​The Political Temperature

​The "U-turn" on VAT is being viewed by many as a tactical move to stave off planned protests. Opposition leaders like Ruth Odinga and James Orengo continue to maintain that the administration is "experimenting" with the economy at the expense of the poor, calling for even deeper tax reforms to make fuel affordable.

​What’s your experience today? Have you noticed a drop in pump prices at your local station, or are matatu fares still on the rise? Share your thoughts in the comments below.