More than 260,000 learners who sat Kenya's earlier national examinations do not appear on the registers for this year's Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) and Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA). The figures came out as the 2026 national exam season moved into full swing on Monday, October 26.

The gap, first reported by the Nation and picked up by other outlets, is found by comparing past candidate numbers with this year's registration. It raises fresh questions about how well the government's 100 per cent transition policy is working.

Where the numbers fall short

In 2022, 1,233,852 candidates sat the last Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) under the 8-4-4 system. Four years later, 1,048,355 candidates are registered for KCSE, which is 185,497 fewer, or 15.03 per cent of that cohort.

The gap is smaller in the new competency-based system. In 2023, 1,281,210 learners sat the Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) in Grade 6. This year, 1,206,028 are registered for KJSEA in Grade 9, leaving 75,182 learners, or 5.87 per cent, unaccounted for.

Together, the two comparisons show 260,679 learners who would have been expected to reach this year's examinations but are not registered.

Ogamba: not all are dropouts

Education Cabinet Secretary Julius Migos Ogamba cautioned against reading the whole figure as a dropout count. He listed deaths, illness, early pregnancy, transfers to international curricula and delayed progression among the reasons, and said learners who leave for a while can come back.

"Some of the reduction of numbers is due to natural attrition," Ogamba said, according to The Eastleigh Voice. "But they are given the opportunity to rejoin once they are able."

K24 Digital also pointed out that the comparison is between different years and stages, so it cannot follow individual learners. Some candidates may repeat a class, move to private international schools or sit the exam later, while others may have dropped out for good.

Why it matters

The figures land at a sensitive time. The government has promised that every learner moves from one level to the next, and Free Day Secondary Education capitation is meant to remove fees as a barrier. A gap of about one in seven between the 2022 KCPE class and this year's KCSE class suggests that many learners are still slipping away somewhere in secondary school, whether because of cost, pregnancy, child labour or long distances to school.

Without a learner-level tracking system, such as data from the National Education Management Information System (NEMIS), linked to examination records, it is hard to say how many have truly left school and how many are only delayed. Education researchers have long called for such tracking.

Bigger classes overall

The gap sits alongside overall growth in candidate numbers. KPSEA registration rose from 1,298,089 in 2025 to 1,380,463 this year, KJSEA from 1,130,679 to 1,206,028, and KCSE from 996,078 to 1,048,355. In total, 3,634,846 candidates are sitting national examinations in 2026.

To run the assessments, the Kenya National Examinations Council (KNEC) has deployed 27,271 supervisors for KPSEA and 24,860 for KJSEA, along with 130,633 invigilators and 6,215 drivers, The Eastleigh Voice reported.

Photos: Tuko, The Eastleigh Voice