While much of the world is slowing, India's economy is speeding up. Several major institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the world's most populous country to around 7%.

The upgrades

  • OECD: from 6.3% to 7.1%
  • S&P Global: from 6.6% to 7%
  • Fitch Ratings: from 6.4% to 6.9%
  • Asian Development Bank: from 6.6% to 7%
  • Moody's Ratings: from 6% to 7%

What is driving growth

India's real GDP grew 7.8% in the first quarter of its 2026-27 financial year (April to June), up from 6.9% a year earlier. Highlights include:

  • Services: up 10%, led by finance, real estate, IT and professional services
  • Manufacturing: up 9.2%
  • Construction: up 7.7%
  • Investment: gross fixed capital formation jumped 20.4%
  • Household spending: up 9.9%, making up more than half of GDP
  • Exports: goods and services exports of about US$399 billion between April and August, up roughly 15%

The risks

Weak global demand, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty could still slow India down. Keeping up the pace will require better productivity, infrastructure, technology and jobs.

Why it matters to Kenya

India is one of Kenya's most important trading partners and a major source of imports such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles and steel. A strong Indian economy can mean:

  • steady supplies of affordable medicines and industrial goods
  • more demand for Kenyan exports such as tea, pulses and soda ash
  • more Indian investment in Kenyan manufacturing, telecoms, healthcare and technology
  • more Indian tourists and students

For Kenyan exporters, India's growing middle class is a market worth paying close attention to.