In Olmaroroi, Kajiado County, candidates and examination officials had to climb into the bucket of an excavator to get across a road swallowed by floodwater. Kenya's weatherman says scenes like that could become common over the next two months.

The Kenya Meteorological Department expects above-average rainfall in more than 40 counties this month. Acting director Edward Muriuki said most of the country should expect a wetter-than-usual November and December, The Star reported.

Who will get the rain

The monthly outlook, released on 1 November, names Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, Kiambu, Meru, Machakos and Makueni among the counties set to get more rain than their long-term average, K24 Digital reported. Most of western Kenya, the Rift Valley, central Kenya, the coast and north-eastern counties such as Garissa, Mandera and Wajir are also on the list.

A weekly forecast for 3 to 10 November expects rain over parts of 46 counties, from Baringo and Bungoma to Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot.

Despite the rain, Met expects it to be hotter than usual everywhere. Daytime highs could reach 38°C in parts of Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo. Nairobi, Kiambu and Murang'a are expected to range between 20°C and 30°C.

The dangers

The department warned that "the enhanced rainfall may increase the risk of weather-related hazards, including flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides and damage to infrastructure". It listed the places most at risk:

  • Low-lying coastal areas
  • Flood-prone river basins
  • Towns with poor drainage
  • Steep highland slopes prone to landslides

Rural access roads "may become impassable following prolonged rainfall", the department said, which could cut off people, goods and services and disrupt the movement of farm produce to markets. In towns, blocked drains could bring traffic to a standstill.

Muriuki also warned of disease. Standing water creates breeding grounds for mosquitoes and could push up malaria cases. Floodwater can also contaminate water sources and raise the risk of cholera, typhoid and diarrhoeal infections.

Good news for farmers, with a catch

After a dry spell, the rains should restore soil moisture and pasture and refill rivers, dams, water pans and groundwater. October was below average to near average in much of the country, although a station at Ng'iya Primary School in Siaya recorded 264.4mm, the highest monthly total.

Met says the rains are being shaped by the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and cyclones over the Indian Ocean. It advises Kenyans to read the weekly forecast together with its daily updates. Do not walk or drive through moving floodwater.

Photos: K24 Digital / Francis Muli (rainy day in Tassia, Nairobi); The Eastleigh Voice (screengrab of students and officials crossing a flooded road in Olmaroroi, Kajiado). Thumbnail design: HAMASTA MEDIA.